After forming a hypothesis a person wants to make sure there are no variables that can skew the results of the experiments used to prove it out. The hypothesis is subjective; meaning the opinion came from a person’s mind. We want objective results; where the objects speak for themselves. The more the objects speak for themselves without human influence, the more we can trust that the results will be reliable.

Statistical Analysis uses data, models and predictions. The word science is used loosely for this. It is handy for marketing and politics, but with the understanding that there is a high risk of getting poor results. Nothing is a slam dunk to sell and no one is a slam dunk in politics. We will look at the reasons why it is so prone to error.

When someone comes up with an idea concerning random events; such as weather, politics and economics, a human has to set up numerous parameters to form conclusions. They can’t be considered “results” because objects aren’t speaking; there are too many subjective inputs. The results can only be checked after the event happens but probably won’t be repeated the next time. A human has to set parameters on how much data, the duration, what qualifies, the accuracy of collection, and how it will be processed. It doesn’t matter if the human puts it into a computer to help with the work, the parameters are a human production and therefore subject to opinions and errors along the way. It certainly has a high error factor and doesn’t follow scientific method.

Concerning weather, it is interesting to study patterns but we see from day to day the weatherman misses it. On a scale that is of a longer duration there are climatologists. When they collect data, the variables are: location of the points, accuracy of the data, how it is collected, if the duration of collection (has it been long enough to form opinions?), how it will be modeled, who sets the parameters and the list goes on and on. There are so many areas that are subjective, error prone and random that it is absurd to call it a scientific process.

On top of this, the climatologist who sets the parameters are not expert in the areas they collect data. Since GPS has become more precise, it is easier to see that the surface of the earth has areas that rise and sink over time. Michigan was under a glacier and is rising since the weight has left. There are Pacific islands that are sinking but there are numerous variables involved such as the tectonic plates and volcanic activity, erosion and the location of coral reefs along with normal glacial changes that affect ocean levels. They acknowledged this fact in some articles yet still claim that climate change will make it worse. The objective fact is that Pacific islands that sink are a normal process of nature; but determining what is normal is outside any climatologists expertise. The examples of variables like this that aren’t accounted for in their models are unending. We won’t take time to get into the impossibility of the physics that adding a carbon atom to two existing oxygen has any affect on weather.  It takes blind faith in so many areas to believe climate change that it approaches the realm of a religion rather than a science. Just try to reason with a believer and you will see what I mean.

When I feel a warm breeze you’re closer

Ever been swimming but can’t find the shore

There once was a girl who sure was a keeper

Words describe concepts. Today the word “science” is used to describe two concepts .  One is to use it in the strict sense, scientific method, and the other is the broad application describing an organized study used to prove an opinion. These two concepts are not synonymous although many today use them that way. The scientific method is used to refute opinions while science as a study is a way to qualify opinions and passions. We can get a better understanding of the difference by examining what the scientific method means.

We want to remove vague notions from a practical study. It is counterproductive to use religion, superstition and impassioned opinions to form conclusions about how the world around us functions. It doesn’t mean we are against them, but since they cannot be observed and confirmed our  results become inconclusive. The scientific method starts out with observations. Through observations, our rational mind sees patterns and we come up with ideas. A hypothesis is an idea that has sound science as a basis. We set up tests to see if the hypothesis isn’t just a hunch but it actually occurs. Any time we are trying to prove something, there can be numerous variables in the testing that can skew the results. An honest expert will always state the margin of error and the variables so others can see. An honest scientist will want others to point out anything they might have missed. A  person who is doing a study to prove an opinion will use only data that supports their hypothesis and will ignore or hide the variables. They will also intimidate those who question the variables and the data. It is dishonest to qualify these claims by inferring they are using science in the strict sense.

When the results aren’t as conclusive as one would like them to be, it could be considered a model. This means the hypothesis can be used in most cases but there are also  variables that can affect it. We see this in physics quite a bit since at an atomic level many of the laws of physics don’t apply.

When the margin of error and variables are taken into account and all other possibilities are eliminated through careful experimentation and study, the results are observed as conclusive. We have a theory or a law. The theory can be used as a stepping stone to help others to make their own observations and hypothesis.  The ground doesn’t need to be covered again unless something in their results causes them to backtrack and revise the theory as we have seen in the past. If it is a medical hypothesis and lives are at stake, the results have to be studied carefully by using something alive and slowly working toward using it on humans. Everyone responds differently, long term effects are taken into account and there are numerous other variables. The margin of error is very tight since lives are at stake and yet we still see recalls.

There are studies that use past trends to try and predict future events. These are interesting but have a high margin of error because the information is ambiguous and there are numerous variables. If anyone was good at predicting economics for example, they would become rich. If we could predict exactly how a person might respond, we could control the world. But people tend to do what they want despite all our predictive studies. It doesn’t mean the studies are worthless but they are simply hybrid horoscopes. We can only tell elections for sure when the results come in. Models are used but the results can only be known when the event occurs. The study might turn a wild guess into an educated guess. It may use scientific principles as foundations for predictions but the variables kill it. It is by no means a use of scientific method. Examples of things that are considered science but don’t use scientific method are; Psychology, Economics and Climate Change.

We will expand on this…

I’ll remember to forget

We like to have good things to anticipate and having a healthy mind depends on it. No one likes a cynic or someone who loses hope for a good future. We use the words faith and hope interchangeably at times and so a little clarification is in order. The object of both is what we call “fortune”.

Fortune is a general word we use for expectations being met. The variations are: good fortune, fortunate, unfortunate and misfortune. Fortune tellers make a living trying to show people which one they will get. Every person has desires that vary toward different objects and when we get the desire of our heart it is considered good fortune. Of course justice is a part of it. Getting our desires rightly is important since injustices can haunt us and dilute pure enjoyment. People with a strong sense of justice have a harder time with it while there are those who can burn others without a care.

Hope is looking forward to a desire being fulfilled. When we lose hope, we try to kill the desire by thinking it is impossible, foolishness and futile. Faith is the object we depend on to bring our hopes to us in a just way. It is what we trust in to make our dreams come true.  We use faith all the time. It is synonymous with confidence.  People can put confidence in different things; gods, societies and themselves. We start by having confidence in ourselves and when things don’t go as we expected, we try to excuse the injustices away somehow by blaming it on a third party.

Religions use the terms blessed and cursed; good karma and bad; but they mean the same thing. When things don’t go well whether it comes from individuals or circumstances, there has to be a third party that brings it back to justice. They might say that bad things happen because we did something wrong in a past life since we haven’t done anything wrong in this one. Maybe we made God mad in some way such as a past offense. It might  be that good things might come to us because we did something right that pleased God or karma. But we have to admit that bad people do get good things and good people get bad so life seems unfair. We also apply these ideas toward the future and if we don’t get what is just, good or bad in this life, maybe we will pay in the next life be it heaven or on the earth. Religions expand on this and add actions we can do to insure that all injustices are paid for so good fortune is guaranteed to come to us both in this life and the next. Some capitalize on it further and get people convinced that by giving to them, a person will receive a blessing. But this is an infinite progression that has no starting point or end. What is sufficient and what is excessive? We wrestle with this within ourselves sometimes trying to compensate for our past and create hope for the future.

Having a rational mind is a gift from God. It is where we make the highest connection with him and with each other. The reality is that we can’t undo the past. We can make plans for the future but never really know what will happen. The best thing to pray for is wisdom. There is an arena we access when our mind is settled without the noise of pressing needs and injustices. Our creativity meets his. We have the greatest ideas when we are at peace. Instead of asking for things to be moved with the focus on shuffling obstacles around, it is better to ask for confidence to work with what comes our way gracefully. Those of us with forceful passions have to come to terms with this early yet have to constantly work on it. Tantrums and fretting, work contrary to getting what we want. We tend to think that outside of passion there is only apathy. But the true definition of good fortune is to be confident and at peace so we can enjoy life.

We shouldn’t lose hope, but expect good fortune; staying confident the wisdom will present itself to deal with the misfortunes that may present themselves. This is what is meant by living in the moment without anxiety. Our time on earth is short and shouldn’t be wasted with fretting and anxiety. So the only thing concerning the future that should be in our present is hope; the confidence that our heart will remain settled on the constants of love while our mind will access the wisdom to deal with whatever comes our way.. This has application to career, family and life in general.