I’ve been spending quite a bit of time doing math lately. Specifically of the problem solving type. Since this site is about rational things, lets take a look at mathematical probabilities. It is an interesting subject…well maybe for a geek like me. What is fascinating is the way certain rules always work. It points to a higher organization that we know little about. We just observe how it happens. I promise to keep this basic.

When you flip a coin, the odds are 1:1 that it will turn up heads. It doesn’t matter how many times it is flipped, the odds always stay the same. You can flip the coin three times and get tails but that doesn’t change the odds when you flip the fourth time. This is called gamblers odds. But the odd thing about it (forgive the pun) is if you get three heads in a row, it may seem you are beating the odds, however, the more you flip the coin, the closer it will go back to 1:1. Over twenty flips for instance, you will most likely have ten heads. Having certain results overall doesn’t change the odds for each single flip though.

Insurance companies use probabilities to set their rates. The ratio of claims will stay consistent over a large group and these translate into the odds for a single claim for you. They bet on those odds to make money and due to how reliable probabilities are, they can use close margins.

When you go to the casino, you might win a few, but the longer you play, the closer you will get to the probability that the casino management has calculated ahead of time. This is how they make enough money for the lavish surroundings. Your odds at that particular game is the same each time you play. That doesn’t change. You might win a few times, but the more you play, the closer you will get back to whatever was figured ahead of time by the management. They know the margins and can reliably charge an amount in relation to how many times the game is played so they always come out on top. So as with any entertainment, the experience may be fun, but it can’t be looked at as a money maker.

If I could 

What does it mean to be free? There are those who feel that sharing wealth makes everyone free. But that is simplistic and just addresses one area. Wealth in a free country is a fruit that is earned. In a despotic country it is a gift from a benevolent government. There are more aspects to freedom than money. A person who is truly free has the ability to make his own choices. Yet there are those who make bad choices and end up controlled by their appetites. What it gets down to is that freedom is having the ability to govern oneself and enjoy the resulting fruit. Unfortunately, sometimes we make bad choices. There are times when some people need the assistance of a third party to govern their actions. This should be the exception and not the rule.

A despotic leader will make the claim that the vast majority of people aren’t capable of governing themselves. They exaggerate crisis and make themselves out to be a savior. A despot will specialize in characterizations in order to form a contrast; presenting themselves as a champion of virtue. The principles concerning freedom verses despotism apply to our relationships with friends, businesses and government. We can be hard on ourselves and lack the ability to be free to express ourselves due to inner inhibitions from past hurt or fears. The past can have despotic rule over our present if we allow it to.

We all have our own passions and appetites that give us enjoyment while we travel through moments of time. They are there for our benefit. But at the same time there is a governing part within each of us that sets limits so we can meet our own needs, personal goals and enjoy our leisure. Choice means that a person has retained the ability to govern their own passions. There is no choice in slavery. It is what happens when one person asserts authority over another individual. In our personal relationships, we cede some control over choices in order to achieve common goals. The further an authority is from an individual, the less the personal interests of an individual can be considered and the more general it becomes. Bureaucracies are formed in an attempt to address these particulars. Ideally, people are free when they govern themselves, make agreements among themselves and pursue their own dreams. That is what the concept of limited government means. In our close personal relationships we use the word trust. Trust means there is a certain confidence in a person’s ability to govern themselves so they are free to make their own choices with their passions. Limited government and trust in the people are synonymous.

A soothing voice awakened me